I just ran two million regressions elections

2008-01-31 · Original WordPress address

Actually, because Excel sucks, I only ran 13026 elections (xls, 4.5 megs). My predictions for next Tuesday:

Obama will definitely win Illinois
He will probably win Colorado and Georgia (> 65% chance to win each)
He will definitely lose Massachusetts and Oklahoma
Connecticut is a close call
He'll probably lose the rest (< 38% chance)
He will win 44-50% of the total delegates
He's not likely to win super Tuesday (i.e. get more than 50% of the delegates), but it definitely won't knock him out of the race
1/3rd of my predictions will be wrong

That's it. I'm done with this election crap. I got to write my first VBA script though...