Overnight Obama surge
2008-02-04 · Original WordPress address
I woke up this morning and found sometime during the night, Obama's contract at intrade increased in price about 6 points. A couple hours later, about 4am Eastern, Clinton lost almost 5 points.
What the deuce?
I didn't see any big news about either campaign at the NYT, Wall Street Journal or cnn. The changes seem to be a result of polling numbers that came in over the weekend... I'm just not sure why the contracts updated so late and so suddenly last night.
Anyway, this inspired me to plug the new poll numbers into the spreadsheet I built the other day. Indeed, Obama's chances to win Super Dooper Tuesday have increased. My updated predictions:
- Obama will definitely win Illinois
- He will probably win Colorado and Georgia (> 65% chance to win each)
- He will definitely lose
Massachusetts and Oklahoma
- Alabama, California, Connecticut and Missouri are a close calls
- He’ll probably lose Arizona, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma (< 38% chance)
- He will win 47-54% of the total delegates
He’s not likely to win Its basically 50-50 chance to win super Tuesday (i.e. get more than 50% of the delegates), and it definitely won’t knock him out of the race- 1/3rd of my predictions will be wrong