Does immigration policy matter?

2008-05-12 · Original WordPress address

I've read a little bit of the immigration literature (its effects on wages, prices, government spending, etc) and it seems people always assume legal restrictions on immigration are heavy disincentives to illegal immigration. Its assumed immigration would be much greater if we opened up our borders. Its this last assumption both excites people that care about world welfare (the "relevant moral community") and its what scares Lou Dobbs. This last fact makes me want to stop thinking about this issue and just be ok with the assumption... I really hate Lou Dobbs... Anyway, where was I? Oh, right... But maybe the assumption is wrong. Maybe policy makes migration more expensive, but maybe that additional expense is minuscule in comparison to the other costs of migration ((I suspect most potential migrants are credit constrained... you can't really buy insurance against the risks of illegal immigration and native banks aren't really going to give loans on the promise of much higher wages in a foreign country. Though, maybe they should. Anyone want to make some money?)). Here's a paper I want to read: Some unexpected policy shift happened in one of the "receiving" countries in recorded economic history. Then all we need is a measure of legal and illegal immigration for that country (which should be totally easy to come by!) and we've got ourselves a natural experiment. What is the cost (in money or in reduced probability of migration or in terms relative to the other costs of migration) of immigration restrictions?